Heavy Rains: AWIS Weather Forecast 8/13/2021

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Heavy Rains In the Coming Days

*** Tropical Rains An Increasing Threat Southern Appalachians

*** Heavy Rain Threat Could Extend in Central Appalachians

*** Highest Rain Threat Next Monday – Wednesday

General Discussion

Areas of the Central and Southern Appalachians have received 1-3 inches of rain this week from daily scattered showers and storms. Additional scattered showers and storms the next couple days will add to these totals, with daily local totals of an inch or more possible. However, the main threat ahead will be rains pushing Northward from Tropical system Fred.

Fred is expected to begin a turn to the Northwest over the weekend, moving close to the South and SW Florida Peninsula and then out into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. It will then head towards the Northeast Gulf Coast, likely making landfall around Apalachicola, FL early next Monday morning. A continued Northward push through Eastern Alabama or Western Georgia is expected early next week. As Fred pushes Northward, tropical moisture will as well. This moisture will be given an added boost to generate rain as it rises over the Eastern rim of the Southern Appalachians foothills and mountains.

Rain totals Monday through Wednesday could total 3-6 inches and locally more. Best chances for heaviest rains extend from West and SW Virginia through Western NC, NW SC and North Georgia, particularly the East and South slope facing areas of the Appalachians.

As we get closer to the end of next week, rainfall should become more scattered again, along with rising temperatures and a little higher di-urnal temperature ranges, but still humid.

We recommend to control especially downy mildew and bunch rots before the rain. Please follow the recommendations of the Southern Regional Small Fruits Consortium.

Weather Maps

Heavy rain is predicted for the coming 4-5 days. While we won’t see heavy winds, the rain that is pushed by Fred will be substantial and potentially can lead to the spread of foliar diseases in a vineyard, especially downy mildew. Diurnal temperature ranges will decrease below 15 F in most regions of North Carolina.

Temperature heat map Temperature heat map

Figure 1: Rain Chances for Sat and Sunday (8/14 and 8/15) in the region. Heavy rainfall is predicted until Thursday.

10-Day Forecast for Some Regions

Ahoskie-Tri-Cou Albemarle_AP Andrews Asheboro
Asheville_Munic Beaufort-Michae Boone_NC Burlington-Burl
Cape_Hatteras_AG Chapel_Hill-Hor Charlotte Cherry_Point
Clinton_NC Concord_NC Currituck_NC Edenton-Northea
Elizabeth_City Elizabethtown_NC Erwin-Harnett_C Fayetteville_AP
Fort_Bragg/Simm Franklin/Macon_C Gastonia-Gaston Goldsboro_AFB
Goldsboro_NC Greensboro Greenville_AP_NC Hickory
Jacksonville Jacksonville_(A Jefferson_AP_NC Kenansville-Dup
Kill_Devil_Hills Kinston_AP Lexington-David Lincolnton_AP
Louisburg_NC Lumberton_AP_NC Mackall_AAF Manteo/Dare_Co
Maxton Mcalf_Bogue_Fiel Monroe_AP_NC Morganton-Morga
Mount_Airy-Moun New_Bern North_Wilkesbor Oxford_NC
Piney_Island_Bom Pope_AFB Raleigh-Durham Reidsville_AP
Roanoke_Rap_AP Roanoke_Rapids_R Rockingham_NC Rocky_Mount-Wils
Roxboro_AP Rutherfordton Salisbury-Rowan Sanford_NC
Shelby_AP_NC Smithfield_AP Southern_Pines Southport_NC
Statesville-Sta Tarboro_AP Wadesboro_AP Washington-Warr
Whiteville_NC Wilmington_AP_NC Winston-Salem

Written By

Mark Hoffmann, N.C. Cooperative ExtensionDr. Mark HoffmannSmall Fruits Extension Specialist, Assistant Professor, Strawberry and Grape Call Dr. Mark Email Dr. Mark Horticultural Science
NC State Extension, NC State University
Posted on Aug 13, 2021
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