Upcoming Frost Could Threat Early Bud Break Cultivars

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AWIS Weather Advisory: Frost Threat late weekend, early next week.

In collaboration with AWIS Weather Services

Dear all,

Frost is very likely in the central and western parts of North Carolina and most of Virginia, coming Sun to Tue, with a high likelihood on Monday Morning (see Fig 1).  In some areas, early bud breaking cultivar are in bud swell already. While  this is very early in the season, the upcoming frost will be a threat on some cultivars, especially for Chardonnay in the Yadkin Valley!

Wind machines most likely will not work, since larger airmasses are causing the predicted cold temperatures. We recommend to use overhead sprinkler systems (if you have them) to save some of your primary bud. Please see this publication for more details on cold management in grapes.

Since every cold protection method inherits some risk, we recommend to only think of cold protection if you are more than 10% into bud swell!

If you have implemented delayed winter spur pruning on your early cultivars, do not implement the final prune until after the frost event. Delayed winter spur pruning is the best tool to delay bud break, and often useful to avoid early spring frost damages.

General Discussion

*** Low Rain Chances Through Weekend, Some winds
*** Freeze and/or Frost Risks Some Areas Sun-Tue Mornings
*** Freeze/Frost Threat Greatest Monday Morning, Carolinas’ Northward
*** Perhaps Frost Threat Tuesday Morning Northern/Eastern Areas
*** Warmer Middle / End Of Next Week
*** Next Rain Chances Not Until Late Next Week

A couple weaker disturbances will move SE through
the main upper trough, but will not produce much if any rainfall
Friday into the weekend, just mostly periods of clouds and
variable winds, along with cooler temperatures.

The last weak disturbance will push SE through the Mid-Atlantic
and SE states on Saturday, with the coldest air behind this
for late this weekend into early next week.

Growers need to be ready for a potential freeze as early
as Sunday morning some areas. This affects mainly parts of Western NC, VA and North. Most likely a potential freeze and/or frost will be
next Monday morning.

A frost or light ground freeze could linger into Tuesday
morning, mainly far Eastern and Northern areas of the
Mid-Atlantic.

Min Temp Maps

Fig 1. Minimum Temperatures for the Region from Sunday 3/27/2022 to Tuesday, 3/29/2022. The highest frost threat for NC will be the night from Sunday to Monday.

At the moment it looks like especially regions on the Yadkin Valley and other more southern regions on a similar or lower elevation levels will see potential impacts on early bud breaking cultivars such as Chardonnay. If you are more than 10% into bud swell, and you don’t have protection methods at hand, we recommend to assess bud cold damage several days after the event, according to this publication.

Detailed Forecasts

North Carolina


FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE FOR THESE LOCATIONS:
Ahoskie-Tri-Cou Albemarle_AP Andrews Asheboro
Asheville_Munic Beaufort-Michae Boone_NC Burlington-Burl
Cape_Hatteras_AG Chapel_Hill-Hor Charlotte Cherry_Point
Clinton_NC Concord_NC Currituck_NC Edenton-Northea
Elizabeth_City Elizabethtown_NC Erwin-Harnett_C Fayetteville_AP
Fort_Bragg/Simm Franklin/Macon_C Gastonia-Gaston Goldsboro_AFB
Goldsboro_NC Greensboro Greenville_AP_NC Hickory
Jacksonville Jacksonville_(A Jefferson_AP_NC Kenansville-Dup
Kill_Devil_Hills Kinston_AP Lexington-David Lincolnton_AP
Louisburg_NC Lumberton_AP_NC Mackall_AAF Manteo/Dare_Co
Maxton Mcalf_Bogue_Fiel Monroe_AP_NC Morganton-Morga
Mount_Airy-Moun New_Bern North_Wilkesbor Oxford_NC
Piney_Island_Bom Pope_AFB Raleigh-Durham Reidsville_AP
Roanoke_Rap_AP Roanoke_Rapids_R Rockingham_NC Rocky_Mount-Wils
Roxboro_AP Rutherfordton Salisbury-Rowan Sanford_NC
Shelby_AP_NC Smithfield_AP Southern_Pines Southport_NC
Statesville-Sta Tarboro_AP Wadesboro_AP Washington-Warr
Whiteville_NC Wilmington_AP_NC Winston-Salem

South Carolina:


FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE FOR THESE LOCATIONS:
Aiken_AP Anderson_Co_Air Barnwell_AP Beaufort_Cnty_AP
Beaufort_SC Bennettsville_Je Camden_AP Charleston_Exec_
Charleston_Muni Cheraw_AP Chester_SC_AP Clemson-Clemson
Columbia-Columb Columbia/McEnti Columbia_Metro Conway_AP
Darlington Florence_SC Georgetown_AP_SC Greenville_Donal
Greenville_Down Greenville-Spart Greenwood-Green Hartsville_AP
Hilton_Head_AP Kingstree_AP Lancaster-McWhir Laurens_AP
Manning_AP Marion_AP_SC Moncks_Corner_AP Mount_Pleasant_A
Myrtle_Beach Newberry_AP North_Myrtle_Be Orangeburg-Oran
Pickens_AP Rock_Hill Spartanburg_Down Summerville_AP
Sumter_AP Sumter_SC Walterboro_AP Winnsboro_AP

Georgia:


FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE FOR THESE LOCATIONS:
Albany_Municipa Alma/Bacon_Co Americus_AP Athens_Municipa
Atlanta/DeKalb Atlanta/Fulton Atlanta_Intl_Ar Atlanta_Paulding
Augusta/Bush_Fi Augusta_Daniel_F Bainbridge_GA Blakely_AP
Brunswick_GA Brunswick/Glync Canton_GA Carrollton_AP
Cartersville_AP Claxton_AP Columbus_GA Covington_GA_AP
Dalton-Dalton_M Douglas_Muni Dublin/WHBarron Fitzgerald_AP
Fort_Benning Ft_Stewart/Wrig Gainesville_AP_G Greensboro_GA
Homerville_AP Hunter_(AAF) Jesup_AP La_Grange
Lakeland Lawrenceville_AP Macon_AP Marietta
Marietta/Cobb Milledgeville_AP Moultrie_Muni_AP Newnan-Newnan_C
Peachtree_City Rome_GA Savannah Statesboro_GA
Swainsboro_AP Sylvania_AP_GA Thomaston_AP Thomasville_AP
Thomson_GA Tifton_AP Valdosta Valdosta/Moody
Vidalia Warner_Robins_A Washington_GA Waycross_AP
Winder_AP

Virginia:


FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE FOR THESE LOCATIONS:
Abingdon Ashland_VA Charlottesville Chesapeake-Ches
Culpeper Danville Dublin/New_Riv Emporia_VA
Farmville Fentress_Naval_A Fort_Belvoir/Da Fort_Eustis/Fel
Franklin/J_B_Ro Hillsville Hot_Springs/Ing Jonesville_AP
Langley_AFB Leesburg/Godfre Louisa-Louisa_C Lynchburg
Manassas_Muni(A Marion/Wythev Martinsville Mecklenburg/Bru
Melfa/Accomack Newport_News Norfolk_Hampton_ Norfolk_NAS
Norfolk_VA Oceana Orange_VA Petersburg_(AWO
Quantico Richlands_AP Richmond Richmond_Chester
Roanoke Shannon_Arpt Stafford_AP_VA Staunton-Shenan
Suffolk-Suffolk Tappahannock_AP Virginia_Tech_A Wakefield_AP
Wallops_Island Warrenton_Fauqui Washington_Dulle West_Point_VA
Williamsburg_VA Winchester_Rgnl Wise/Lonesome_P

Maryland:

FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE FOR THESE LOCATIONS:
Aberdeen Andrews_AFB Annapolis_Naval Baltimore_Sci_Ce
Baltimore/Wash Cambridge/Dorche Camp_David_HEL College_Park_AP
Cumberland_AP Easton_MD Fort_Meade Frederick_MD
Gaithersburg_AP Hagerstown_AP Leonardtown Middle_River
Oakland_MD_AP Ocean_City_AP Patuxent_River Salisbury
Stevensville_AP St_Inigoes/Webst Washington_DC_AP Westminster_AP